The `Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem' (CATALYST) represents a sustained commitment by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) to perform foundational research toward advancing a robust understanding of modes of variability and change using models, observations and process studies.
Presentations and Agenda for site visit
Hilton Washington D.C./Rockville Hotel
Day One-September 19, 2017
7:15-8:30AM Continental breakfast available
8:00 - 9:00AM Executive session (BER and Reviewers)
Session 1 (9:00AM-1:00PM): CATALYST Overview (presentation
times include time for questions)
9:00 - 9:10AM Welcome, Introductions, agenda (Gerald Meehl)
9:10 - 9:20AM Warren Washington Historical context for the UCAR/DOE Cooperative Agreement
9:20 - 9:50AM Gerald Meehl Overview of CATALYST
9:50 - 10:00AM Susan Bates Proposed model simulations and computer resources
10:00 - 10:15AM Morning Break
10:15AM - 1:00PM CATALYST Science Topics
Science questions to address Research Objectives presented by Research Objective Team Leads:
Haiyan Teng: Research Objective 1 science topic overview
Brian Medeiros: Research Objective 3 science topic overview (Part 1)
Ben Sanderson: Research Objective 3 science topic overview (Part 2)
Specific science topic examples:
Claudia Tebaldi: Probabilistic methods
Joe Tribbia: Mesoscale Convective Systems
Angie Pendergrass: Precipitation-producing systems
Rich Neale: MJO, blocking, ACME collaborations
1:00PM Lunch served
Session 2 (1:30PM-2:30PM): Poster Session
Gary Strand: CESM workflow refactor
Christine Shields: ARTMIP: Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project
Angie Pendergrass: Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
Julie Caron and Joe Tribbia: Sub-seasonal to decadal prediction in CESM: Initialization
Brian Medeiros: Climate sensitivity through the CESM model hierarchy
Nan Rosenbloom: Mentoring a new generation of research scientists
Claudia Tebaldi: Record highs and lows in CESM and observations
2:30 - 2:45PM Afternoon Break
Session 3 (2:45PM-6:15PM): Cooperative Agreement Progress to Date and Synergies
2:45 - 4:15PM Progress Reports, DOE/UCAR Cooperative Agreement, 2012-2017 (speakers to include presentation and time for questions)
Susan Bates Community Model Simulations and Data Sets
Christine Shields Task 2 Hydroclimate (15 minutes)
Brian Medeiros Task 3 Model improvements and model hierarchy (15 minutes)
4:15 - 5:15PM Discussion and questions from reviewers
5:15 - 6:15PM Closed session discussion with DOE and Reviewers
Day Two-September 20, 2017
7:15 - 8:30AM Continental breakfast available
Session 4 (8:00AM-1:30PM)
8:00 - 9:00AM Executive session (BER and Reviewers)
9:00 - 11:00AM Reviewer Committee and CATALYST team - Q and A
11:00 - 11:15AM Morning break
11:15 - 12:30PM Closed session for Reviewers - writing
12:30 - 1:30PM Closed session working lunch
CVs / People in CATALYST
CATALYST proposal details
The CATALYST science themes define the scope and integrative goals of the proposal:
CATALYST Science Themes
- Gain an understanding of the interplay between external forcing (solar, volcano, greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc.) and internal variability across timescales by configuring and applying an earth system simulation capability that will be used to improve fundamental understanding of predictability of the earth system and inform our understanding of how variability could change on multi-decadal timescales
- Identify processes and mechanisms that characterize high impact events, and quantify how these events could change in the future (heat extremes, droughts, floods, mid-latitude storms, hurricanes, sea level, atmospheric rivers, ocean extremes, AMOC-related variability)
- Assess parametric and structural uncertainty in earth system models, relate earth system variability and change to fundamental uncertainties and feedbacks, and evaluate model improvements using a hierarchy of models and diagnostic tools with an emphasis on optimization and calibration at the development timescale.
Three Science Research Objectives that support these overarching science themes and constitute the experimental design of the present CATALYST proposal:
CATALYST Research Objectives
Research Objective 1Gain an understanding of the interplay between external forcing (solar, volcano, greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc.) and internal variability across timescales by configuring and applying an earth system simulation capability that will be used to improve fundamental understanding of the predictability of the earth system, and understand how variability could change on multi-decadal timescales;
- How is subseasonal to interannual variability represented in earth system models, and how may these phenomena change in the future?
- How do modes of internally generated earth system variability in the different ocean basins interact and influence the manifestation of global decadal earth system variability?
- What is the seasonal to decadal predictability of the NAO?
- Can we formulate formal probabilistic/statistical models to synthesize information from hindcast experiments and to optimize results from forecast experiments?
- Can we use long-term changes to better understand and detect short- to near- to mid-term trends and emerging signals in model simulations and observations?
Research Objective 2Identify the processes and mechanisms that characterize high impact events, and quantify how these events could change in the future (heat extremes, droughts, floods, mid-latitude storms, hurricanes, sea level, atmospheric rivers, ocean extremes, AMOC-related variability);
- What processes and feedbacks influence present-day and future earth system variability and change associated with precipitation extremes and drought (daily, to seasonal “flash droughts”, to multi-year droughts), and what is their interplay with temperature extremes in terms of intensity, frequency and magnitude on various spatial and temporal scales?
- Can we capture ocean temperature extremes in an earth system model and what processes and mechanisms produce these heat extremes?
- What is the role of tropical cyclones in earth system variability and change, what will be the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual characteristics of tropical cyclones in a warmer system, and how will these changes affect their role in the earth system, particularly on ocean heat transport?
- What is the ocean’s role in atmospheric river (AR) development, especially related to ocean model resolution and modes of natural variability?
- What are the synoptic-scale storm features that produce precipitation extremes (e.g. low centers vs. frontal vs. larger scale stratiform vs. atmospheric rivers)?
- How will mid-latitude variability and extremes associated with meso-scale features such as mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and synoptic-scale mid-latitude storms change in the future?
- What is the nature of mid-latitude/high-latitude interactions in terms of storms and cryosphere responses?
- How much and how fast will sea level rise, what governs global and regional sea level rise uncertainty (e.g. AMOC, ice sheet melt), and what is the combined effect of sea level rise and storm surge?
Research Objective 3Assess parametric and structural uncertainty in earth system models, relate earth system variability and change to fundamental uncertainties and feedbacks, and evaluate model improvements using a hierarchy of models and diagnostic tools with an emphasis on optimization and calibration at the development timescale.
- What are the sources of structural model uncertainty, and can these uncertainties be reduced through judicious use of modeling hierarchies and advanced diagnostic techniques?
- How can short-term initialized experiments (CAPT framework) help to assess and better understand model processes?
- How do clouds and precipitation respond to external forcings, and then feedback on the earth system?
- How can we better understand precipitation processes and variability?